Audemars Piguet Royal Oak: value of the 15500, 15510, 15202 and 16202 "Jumbo" (2026)
41 mm Royal Oak or extra-thin "Jumbo", calibre 4302 or 7121, old or new generation: what a steel Royal Oak is worth in 2026, reference by reference, and how not to confuse two watches that look alike.
Model values · · 8 min read
The Royal Oak is, with the Nautilus, the luxury sports watch that defined the genre. It is also a model whose references look so alike they get confused, while their market value can vary twofold. Between a 41 mm 15500 and a 39 mm 16202 "Jumbo", the price gap often exceeds €40,000. Here is how to tell them apart, and what each is worth in 2026 according to our surveys.
Two lines: the "Jumbo" and the automatic Royal Oak
The Royal Oak was born in 1972, designed by Gérald Genta: an octagonal bezel with eight visible screws, an integrated bracelet, a "Tapisserie" dial. The founding reference, the 5402, measures 39 mm and houses an ultra-thin automatic calibre. Its "Jumbo" nickname comes from its size, considered imposing at the time.
Since then, two lines have coexisted.
- The extra-thin "Jumbo", direct heir to the 5402: the 15202 (2000 – 2021), then the 16202 (since 2022). A 39 mm case, about 8 mm thick, a dial without centre seconds, and the date as the only extra indication.
- The thicker automatic "Selfwinding" Royal Oak, with centre seconds: the 15300 (39 mm), then the 15400 (41 mm, 2012 – 2019), the 15500 (41 mm, 2019 – 2022) and the 15510 (41 mm, since 2022).
On top of these two lines come the 26240 chronograph, the 37 and 34 mm versions, and the separate Royal Oak Offshore family, which follows another market logic.
Reading an Audemars Piguet reference
A complete Royal Oak reference looks like "15500ST.OO.1220ST.01". It is read in four blocks: the model (15500), the case metal (ST for steel, OR for rose gold, BC for white gold, BA for yellow gold, CE for ceramic), the OO marking when the watch is not gem-set, the bracelet reference (1220ST), then the dial variant (01, 02…). We detail this grammar, and that of the other houses, in our article on understanding watch references. Before any valuation, note the complete reference from the warranty card: the model number alone is not enough to identify the dial.
2026 value grid by reference
The ranges below cover steel watches in good condition and complete (box, warranty card, booklets), according to our surveys of certified dealers and private sales in Europe. Retail prices are indicative; "Jumbo" references rest on fewer transactions, so their ranges are wider.
| Reference | Period | Indicative retail price | Observed range 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15202ST "Jumbo", calibre 2121 | 2000 – 2021 | discontinued | €57,000 – €77,000 |
| 16202ST "Jumbo", calibre 7121 | 2022 – | ~€40,000 | €85,000 – €100,000 |
| 15400ST, 41 mm, calibre 3120 | 2012 – 2019 | discontinued | €28,000 – €34,000 |
| 15500ST, 41 mm, calibre 4302 | 2019 – 2022 | discontinued | €40,000 – €48,000 |
| 15510ST, 41 mm, calibre 4302 | 2022 – | ~€34,000 | €38,000 – €46,000 |
| 15450ST, 37 mm | 2012 – 2022 | discontinued | €25,000 – €32,000 |
| 26240ST, 41 mm chronograph | 2021 – | ~€46,000 | €52,000 – €62,000 |
The Royal Oak 15500, Royal Oak 15510, Royal Oak 15202 and Royal Oak 16202 pages show up-to-date surveys for each of these references.
15500 or 15510: almost the same watch
The 15500 and the 15510 share the 41 mm case and the calibre 4302, with its 70-hour power reserve. The 15510 was presented in 2022, for the model's fiftieth anniversary: a new applied logo, a slimmer bracelet, a few finishing touches. For the wearer, the difference is minimal.
On the market, it is minimal too. The 15500, now a discontinued reference, trades at the same level as the 15510, sometimes slightly above for sought-after dials. The 15400, older and fitted with a calibre with a shorter power reserve, is the entry point to the pre-owned 41 mm Royal Oak, €10,000 to €15,000 lower.
The dial counts: blue is the benchmark configuration, black and grey trade at the same level, and colours produced in small series carry a variable premium. The white or silvered dial, long overlooked, sells slightly below the blue.
15202 or 16202: the real difference is under the dial
The 16202 replaced the 15202 in 2022. From the front, they look very similar: the same 39 mm case, the same thinness, the same "Petite Tapisserie" dial. The major difference is the movement.
The 15202 uses the calibre 2121, derived from a historic base shared with other houses, renowned for its thinness. The 16202 introduces the calibre 7121, developed entirely by Audemars Piguet, sturdier, with a power reserve raised to about 55 hours and more efficient automatic winding.
On the market, the 16202 trades at more than twice its retail price, a sign of very tightly controlled production. The 15202 costs considerably less pre-owned. Collectors seek it out for the calibre 2121 and its direct link with the 5402. The choice is a matter of preference: modernity and a recent warranty for the 16202, history and more affordable access for the 15202.
What makes an example's value vary
According to our surveys, gaps within the same reference come down mainly to five points.
- The condition of the integrated bracelet. It bears most of the wear marks and stretches over time. A tired bracelet costs you.
- [Polishing](/glossaire/polissage). The sharp edges and brushed-polished alternation of the bezel are the Royal Oak's identity. Polishing outside the manufacture rounds them off and costs 5 to 15%.
- Completeness. A watch with its warranty card, box and links trades 8 to 12% above a bare watch, as explained in our article on the impact of a full set on price.
- [Servicing](/glossaire/revision). A recent service at Audemars Piguet reassures, especially on a 15202 or 15400 more than ten years old.
- Authenticity. The Royal Oak is one of the most copied watches. Authentication before purchase is essential between private individuals.
Buying or selling a Royal Oak
When buying, the boutique remains hard to access for steel references: the wait is counted in months and depends on your history with the house. Pre-owned lets you get the watch immediately, at the price of the premium. At a dealer, check that the warranty covers the movement and that the watch has been inspected; between private individuals, have a watchmaker open the watch before paying.
When selling, do not touch the case, gather the warranty card, box, removed links and service invoices, then compare at least three offers. A dealer buys quickly but 10 to 20% below market value, which we explain in why trade-in prices sit below market value.
The Royal Oak market in 2026
The Royal Oak rose faster than Rolex during the 2021-2022 frenzy, and fell faster. Since 2024, prices have stabilised. In 2026, the 41 mm steel references move little, while the 16202 keeps a high premium thanks to very limited supply. Our analysis of the pre-owned watch market in 2026 places these figures in the overall trend.
In short
Valuing a Royal Oak starts with identifying it: "Jumbo" or automatic line, 39 or 41 mm, old or new calibre. The 15500 and 15510 are worth the same on the market; the 16202 trades well above its predecessor, the 15202, for reasons of supply more than looks. Before buying or selling, see the Royal Oak page, then calculate your Royal Oak's market value to get a range based on our surveys.
The model's value: Audemars Piguet Royal Oak
