The pre-owned watch market in 2026: trends, prices and what has really changed
After the frenzy of 2021-2022 and the correction that followed, the pre-owned market has stabilised. What is rising, what is flat, what is still depreciating: our reading of 2026 prices, brand by brand.
Market · · 8 min read
In five years, the pre-owned watch market has been through a complete cycle: a speculative surge until spring 2022, a marked correction in 2023 and 2024, then a slow recovery from 2025. In 2026, it looks like neither the peak nor the trough. It is more selective, easier to read, and it rewards the quality of an individual example more than the mere name on the dial. Here is what our surveys show, and what they do not allow us to conclude.
Where the market comes from: the peak, the correction, the recovery
Between 2020 and 2022, a combination of abundant liquidity, boutique shortages and new interest in the watch as an asset pushed pre-owned prices well above retail. Steel sports references from Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet then traded at two, three, sometimes five times their boutique price.
The correction began in the second quarter of 2022. It was harshest on the most speculative references: a steel Daytona or a Nautilus 5711 lost between 30 and 45% of their market value in eighteen months. "Wearing" watches, like a Datejust or a Speedmaster, moved much less, because they had never really been swept up by the wave.
Public market indices, built from listings and recorded sales, put the low point between late 2024 and early 2025. Since then, the trend has been a moderate rise, quarter after quarter, with no return to euphoria. That is consistent with what we observe: prices rising gently on sought-after references, and staying flat elsewhere.
2026 figures, model by model
The table below compares, for a few benchmark models, the range observed in 2026 and the 2022 peak level. These are watches in good condition, complete, according to our surveys of certified dealers and private sales in Europe.
| Model (current reference) | Observed range 2026 | Gap with the 2022 peak | 12-month trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex Submariner Date 126610LN | €11,500 – €13,500 | about – 25% | slight rise |
| Rolex Daytona steel 126500LN | €26,000 – €33,000 | about – 35% | stable to slight rise |
| Rolex Datejust 41 126300 | €7,800 – €9,600 | about – 15% | stable |
| Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1A-010 | €100,000 – €125,000 | about – 40% | slight rise |
| Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15510ST | €38,000 – €46,000 | about – 35% | stable |
| Omega Speedmaster Moonwatch 310.30.42.50.01.001 | €4,800 – €5,600 | about – 10% | stable |
| Tudor Black Bay 58 | €2,900 – €3,600 | about – 15% | stable |
Two lessons. First, the higher a reference had climbed, the further it fell: the correction mainly wiped out the speculative premium, not the underlying value. Second, the 2026 market is not uniform. The high-end sports segment is gently recovering, the mid-range is flat, and watches from less sought-after brands continue to depreciate normally. For a precise range for your example, the valuation tool takes into account the reference, year, condition and accessories.
What is driving prices in 2026
Four forces explain most of the movements we are recording this year.
- Retail price increases. The major houses have raised their prices every year since 2022, under the effect of precious metal costs, US customs duties on Swiss products and a strong franc. Mechanically, a more expensive new watch supports the value of recent pre-owned: the gap between new and pre-owned narrows from above.
- The gold price. At historic levels, it has visibly raised the price of new gold watches. Pre-owned gold references benefit, especially those whose resale price was already close to the intrinsic value of the case.
- Certified pre-owned programmes. Brand and major distributor CPO programmes set a price floor for recent, serviced and guaranteed examples. They also push the whole market towards greater documentary rigour.
- Organised scarcity. Waiting lists have not disappeared on the most sought-after references. As long as a steel Submariner or a Royal Oak cannot be bought freely in a boutique, the premium over retail persists on the pre-owned market.
Conversely, two brakes weigh: the rise in interest rates since 2022, which made holding "speculative" watches more costly, and more plentiful pre-owned supply, fed by those who bought at the peak and are reselling.
Today's winners and losers
According to our surveys, value retention is concentrated on a small number of models. Rolex remains the most liquid brand: almost all its steel sports references resell close to or above retail. Patek Philippe keeps very high premiums on the Nautilus and Aquanaut, much more modest ones on the Calatrava. For the market, Audemars Piguet boils down to the Royal Oak; the Code 11.59 depreciates noticeably. We detail this comparison in Rolex, Patek or Audemars Piguet: which holds its value best.
The relative losers are well known: fashion watches, high-volume series from less sought-after brands, and pieces whose value rested on a supposed rarity that was not borne out. Limited editions are no guarantee: a series of 2,000 pieces of a common model remains a common model.
Discontinued references are the exception. When a house withdraws a model, its value often rises in the following months, before stabilising. We saw it with the 5711 in 2021 and with several Rolex models withdrawn in 2026, as described in our article on Rolex 2026 novelties and discontinued references.
What the market values more than before
The correction has had a lasting effect: buyers are more demanding. Three criteria weigh more heavily in the price than in 2021.
- The [full set](/glossaire/full-set). Box, papers, warranty card with the right serial number. The gap between a complete watch and a watch-only example reaches 8 to 15% depending on the model, compared with a few points at the peak, when everything sold.
- Original condition. A case that has never been polished, with crisp edges, sells much better than a reworked case. Heavy polishing now costs more on resale than the scratches it removes.
- Traceability. Invoices, service history, a recent brand service: documentation reassures and shortens sale times.
These three factors add up. On a €30,000 reference, they represent several thousand euros of difference, as we detail in the impact of a full set on price.
What our surveys do not say
A market range describes the recent past, not the future. Nothing in the 2026 data allows us to claim that a reference will climb back towards its 2022 levels. The current recovery is real but slow, and it depends on factors outside watchmaking: interest rates, metal prices, trade policy.
You also need to distinguish asking prices from prices paid. Listings show what sellers hope for; transactions often close a few points lower. Our ranges favour recorded prices and certified dealer listings, but they remain orders of magnitude.
Finally, an average value says nothing about a specific example. Two watches of the same reference can differ by 20% depending on their year, condition and accessories.
In short
The 2026 market is a connoisseurs' market: less speculation, more attention to detail. The major sports references are gently recovering, wearing watches remain stable, and the quality of an example weighs more than ever in its price. If you are thinking of buying or selling, start from data rather than impressions: calculate your watch's market value to get a range based on our surveys, or see the Rolex Submariner and Patek Philippe Nautilus pages to follow two market barometers.
