Does a discontinued watch reference gain value? Examples and conditions
Nautilus 5711, Submariner "Hulk" and "Kermit", Milgauss, Explorer II 216570, Royal Oak 15400: what the end of production actually did to their prices, the four conditions that make a discontinued reference rise, and the trap of "discontinued" listings.
Market · · 9 min read
"Discontinued": the word appears in thousands of listings, as if it were enough to justify a price. The idea is simple and appealing: the brand no longer makes the watch, supply dries up, so the price rises. It is sometimes true, often false, and almost always incomplete. The examples of the last fifteen years make it possible to separate the rule from the exception. Here is what the end of production actually did to the value of seven well-known references, and the conditions that make the difference.
What a discontinued reference actually is
A discontinued reference is a version the brand has removed from its catalogue. The nuance matters: it is the reference that stops, not necessarily the model. When Rolex replaces one Submariner with another Submariner, the name continues and the reference changes. When Rolex withdraws the Milgauss, the whole family disappears. The two situations have very different effects on the market.
Between them lie intermediate cases: the transitional reference, produced briefly between two generations and mixing their features, or the dial variant, where only a colour or a typeface disappears. Before talking about value, you therefore need to know exactly what stopped and what replaced it. Our article on discontinued references outside Rolex in 2025-2026 shows that most recent withdrawals are simple dial changes.
Seven examples, seven trajectories
The table brings together well-documented discontinued references and their pre-owned ranges in 2026. The ranges reflect the core of the listings we track (dealers and private sellers, watches in good condition), as of mid-October 2026.
| Reference | Production | Replacement | 2026 range (our data) | What the discontinuation did |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1A-010 | 2006 to 2021 | none in steel | €100,000 to 125,000 | surge on the announcement, then correction; still far above retail |
| Rolex Submariner 116610LV "Hulk" | 2010 to 2020 | 126610LV, black dial | €17,200 to 20,500 | lasting premium over its replacement (€13,400 to 14,900) |
| Rolex Submariner 16610LV "Kermit" | 2003 to 2010 | 116610LV, green dial | €12,900 to 15,200 | clear premium over the black 16610 (€8,700 to 12,000) |
| Rolex Submariner 14060 / 14060M | 1990 to 2012 | 114060, then 124060 | €8,100 to 10,700 | no premium: below the current 124060 (€11,400 to 12,300) |
| Rolex Milgauss 116400GV | 2007 to 2023 | none | €9,800 to 13,400 depending on dial | more interest, no surge |
| Rolex Explorer II 216570 | 2011 to 2021 | 226570 | €11,600 to 12,500 at dealers | no premium over its replacement |
| Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15400ST | 2012 to 2019 | 15500ST, then 15510ST | €30,900 to 32,300 | below the next generation (around €41,000 to 46,000) |
Of seven references, only three show a clear premium linked to their discontinuation. The other four trade at the level of, or below, what replaced them.
The ones that rose: 5711, Hulk, Kermit
The Nautilus 5711/1A-010 is the case everyone quotes. Patek Philippe announced its discontinuation in January 2021, with no steel successor; the price, already far above a retail price of about €31,000, shot up, before a severe correction from 2022. According to our data it still trades at three to four times its last retail price. But most of the premium existed before the discontinuation: the watch had been impossible to find in boutiques for years. The details are in our Nautilus 5711 and 5811 valuation.
The Submariner "Hulk" 116610LV illustrates the second condition: a different replacement. Its successor, the 126610LV, keeps the green bezel but adopts a black dial. The green dial and green bezel combination therefore no longer exists in production, and the Hulk keeps its own clientele, with a premium of about 30% over its replacement at the median in our data.
The Submariner "Kermit" 16610LV, the first Submariner with a green bezel, launched for the model's 50th anniversary, was produced for about seven years. It trades well above the contemporary black 16610. Collectors even distinguish several bezel variants by year, the first of which, known as "Flat 4", is the most sought after: on this kind of watch, the variant matters as much as the reference.
The ones that did not: 14060, 216570, 15400
The no-date Submariner 14060 was produced for more than twenty years, in very large numbers. Its discontinuation created no scarcity: pre-owned supply is plentiful, and it now trades below the current 124060. Our Submariner valuation shows it reference by reference.
The Explorer II 216570 was replaced in 2021 by a 226570 that looks almost identical but uses the calibre 3285, with 70 hours of power reserve instead of 48. When the successor looks like the old one and does better, the rational buyer takes the new one: the 216570 enjoys no premium, as we explain in our Explorer II comparison.
The Royal Oak 15400 follows the same logic. Replaced in 2019 by the 15500 and its more modern calibre, it has become the entry point to the pre-owned 41 mm Royal Oak, about €10,000 below its successors. Our Royal Oak valuation details the gap.
A case apart: the Milgauss
The Milgauss was withdrawn in 2023 with no replacement: on paper, the most favourable configuration. Yet its price has risen without taking off. The reason lies in demand: before its discontinuation, the Milgauss was far easier to obtain in boutiques than a Submariner or a GMT-Master II, and a watch you could easily buy new does not become impossible to find overnight. The Z-Blue dial stands out, while the clear-crystal versions remain the most affordable. Our Milgauss valuation covers them in detail.
The four conditions for a rise
Four conditions emerge from these examples, and they add up rather than substitute for one another:
- Demand exceeding supply before the discontinuation. The references that rise were already selling at a premium over retail. A discontinuation amplifies an existing tension; it does not create one.
- A clearly different replacement, or none. Colour, size, character: if the new generation no longer offers what made the old one attractive, the old one keeps its buyers. If it offers the same thing, better, the old one loses value.
- A short or limited production run. Seven years for the Kermit against more than twenty for the 14060. Production length and volume create real scarcity, not the discontinuation date.
- An impeccable example. A sought-after reference in poor condition, over-polished or assembled from mixed parts does not benefit from the premium. Dial originality matters: a service dial fitted during an overhaul takes away part of the value of a collectible reference.
Finally, the full set weighs more on a discontinued reference than on a watch in production: the warranty card is one of the few ways to date an example since Rolex adopted the random serial number around 2010. Our article on box and papers quantifies the gap.
"Discontinued" listings: how to read them
In our data the word appears everywhere: on Milgauss, Explorer II, Submariners discontinued fifteen years ago, and even on references still in production. One listing was titled "The Rolex everyone laughed at… until they discontinued it". It is a sales pitch, not information.
Before paying a premium on account of a discontinuation, check three things:
- The actual discontinuation date and what replaced the watch. The brand's page, the official catalogue or our model page are enough.
- The price of comparable examples, not the highest asking price. A listing is not a sale.
- The gap with the replacement. If the new generation sells for the same price or less, the premium being asked has no basis.
For a seller, the announcement of a discontinuation is often a good moment to part with a highly sought-after reference, as we explained regarding the GMT-Master II "Pepsi" in our review of the Rolex 2026 novelties. For a buyer, the first weeks after a withdrawal are the most expensive.
In summary
A discontinued reference does not gain value because it is discontinued. It gains value when it was already in demand, when nothing really replaces it, when it was produced for a short time and when the example is complete and original. The others trade like ordinary pre-owned watches, sometimes below their replacement. This matches our analysis of value retention and of market trends in 2026: there is no automatic rule, only conditions. To find out what your own watch is really worth, calculate its value: the reference, the year, the condition and the accessories are enough.
